The National Weather Service forecast shows Maricopa will likely see a hotter summer than last year. 

“We’re going to see extreme heat … I can almost guarantee it,” said Ted Whittock, an NWS meteorologist. “Please don’t let your guard down.” 

This is a similar prediction from the last two years. NWS predicted a hotter than normal summer for 2025 and the year before was the hottest on record for most of the state.  

While heat is the more immediate threat, if last year’s monsoon season left you wanting more rain, this summer might deliver. 

Maricopa residents also have a chance to find relief in more rain this monsoon season than last year’s 2.7 inches. 

“There’s a tilt in the odds towards above-normal thunderstorm activity,” Whittock said, noting the odds could be roughly 37% above-normal rainfall.  

“It’s like a pie chart where one slice is a little bit bigger than the others,” he said. 

Contributing factors are unusually low snowpack across the western U.S. and tropical weather off the coast of Mexico, both of which contribute to increased thunderstorm activity. 

Residents can track weather alerts, including severe thunderstorm and dust storm warnings on the NWS website.